Monday, January 6, 2020

BA - Presents Risk and Opportunity

BA Presents Risk and Opportunity today.
Company is trading for $185B  with net debt putting enterprise value above $200B. 

There are reports of additional issues with 737 MAX including wiring problems, issue with engine lightning protection later removal and FAA Mandating Training among a few. This will definitely lengthen the period for which MAX will remain grounded. BA is indicating they may raise more debt and cut spending including R&D. This is a yellow flag and BA tech seems to be lagging behind Airbus as they repurposed 70 year old plane again to create MAX and did not design a new plane to competing with Airbus. 

BA 4Q 2019 results would definitely be ugly with charges and may present an opportunity around $300 a 10% correction from $330 today. Question is what will happen to MAX and the 7 year backlog of orders that still remain. The US defense business and duopoly keep BA afloat for now with opportunity for turnaround. The new management needs to make the right moves for the company to recover. Any further accidents of BA aircraft will severely dent the company. 


I believe it is best to wait ams watch and sell $300 puts on further correction to lock in a more advantageous risk reward with effective price of $220 or below per share by selling Jan 2022 puts.



































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