Monday, May 14, 2018

GOOGL and FB are Best Large Cap Tech Growth Stocks at Reasonable Value

GOOGL and FB are Best Large Cap Tech Growth Stocks at Reasonable Value as of 1Q2018 end. Excluding Cash both GOOGL at $1050 and FB at $160 trade at 20 times Forward Earnings assuming GOOGL earnings growth of 20%+ and FB earnings growth of 25%+.

Both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) continue to invest in future growth drivers including Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Services etc.

Brookfield Continues to Execute on 2022 Plan

Brookfield (BAM) Continues to Execute on 2022 Plan as evidenced by 1Q2018 results.

As of 1Q2018 Fee Paying AUM increased to $127B, ENI for LTM increased to $2.1B, Annualized Fee Base and Target Carry increased to $2.5B and Cash Flow for LTM increased to $2.5B with $1B of Fee Related Earnings and $1.5B of Investment Income (from BPY/BIP/BEP/BBU and other Listed and Un-Listed Investments).

Mritik Capital expects Fee Related Earnings to grow 15% to 20% per year through 2022 and Investment Income to 10% per year through 2022 (aided by organic growth and new investments). This would imply Fee Related Earnings close to $2B and Investment Income of $2.5B which would imply $4.5 Cash EPS by 2022 end. We project BAM fair value to increase to $75+ by 2022 end.

Key value drivers over next few years would be GGP deal closing for BPY, Organic Growth and TerraFirm related growth for BEP, Organic Growth, NTS recapitalization and Major New Acquisitions for BIP, GrafTech and North American Palladiun Exits and Westinghouse turnaround for BBU and continuing strength in the Brookfield Homes business.

Berkshire Hathaway 1Q2018 Results Analysis

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) 1Q2018 Results Analysis indicate that the company is moving along slow and steady with existing operating companies continuing to generate cash. With the exception of Insurance Businesses all other operations are doing well and generating earnings growth.

Not withstanding the $12B invested in APPL in the latest quarter BRK.B inability to invest the $112B cash has been a major disappointment and a drag on the growth of the book value and earnings power. Warren Buffets performance as the Chief Capital Allocator over the last 24 months has been a huge disappointment.

Mritik Capital rates BRK.B a HOLD with a price target of $250 for 2018 year end.