It’s hard to value these high growth stocks which grow revenue but may not have a wide moat and growing earnings and cash flow. NFLX has rising competition from DIS, CMCSA, AMZN and others.
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Netflix goes negative for the year, giving up a 46% gain
Shares of Netflix erased all of its 46% gain for the year at its peak and officially entered negative territory on Monday Sep 21 2019.
Brookfield Invests in Meraas Dubai Retail Portfolio
Canada's Brookfield Asset Management and Dubai's Meraas Holding have agreed to form a joint venture valued at 5 billion dirham ($1.4 billion) to own and operate Meraas' retail assets.
The assets include Dubai sites The Beach, City Walk and La Mer
The assets include Dubai sites The Beach, City Walk and La Mer
Palantir to seek at least $26 billion valuation in Fundraising Push
Palantir to seek at least $26 billion valuation in Fundraising Push.
Palantir Technologies is a private American software company that specializes in big data analytics. Headquartered in Palo Alto, California, it was founded by Peter Thiel, Nathan Gettings, Joe Lonsdale, Stephen Cohen, and Alex Karp
Palantir Technologies is a private American software company that specializes in big data analytics. Headquartered in Palo Alto, California, it was founded by Peter Thiel, Nathan Gettings, Joe Lonsdale, Stephen Cohen, and Alex Karp
Friday, September 20, 2019
India Corporate Tax Cut To 25.2% from 35% To Spur Growth
India cuts corporate tax rate to 25% from 35% to make it globally competitive and to spur growth and prevent a recession.
Manufacturing companies that make new investments can also pay only 15% corporation tax.
This makes the rates competitive with China, Korea in Asia and is more inline with US, Canada etc.
Corporate Tax Cut To 25.2% To Spur Growth, Markets Celebrate: 10 Points
Manufacturing companies that make new investments can also pay only 15% corporation tax.
This makes the rates competitive with China, Korea in Asia and is more inline with US, Canada etc.
Corporate Tax Cut To 25.2% To Spur Growth, Markets Celebrate: 10 Points
MO & PM - Vaping Headline Risk Leads to Attractive Valuation in Tobacco Stocks
MO & PM - Vaping Headline Risk Leads to Attractive Valuation in Tobacco Stocks.
MO is $40 and PM is $72. Assuming regulatory risk is overrated and company can remain viable selling cigarettes and maintain pricing power 10+ years from now today’s valuation would lead to 12+% compound annual return even assuming 5% secular decline in cigarette consumption.
Fair Value for MO $55 and PM $90.
MO is $40 and PM is $72. Assuming regulatory risk is overrated and company can remain viable selling cigarettes and maintain pricing power 10+ years from now today’s valuation would lead to 12+% compound annual return even assuming 5% secular decline in cigarette consumption.
Fair Value for MO $55 and PM $90.
ALGN - Attractively Priced Growth Stock
ALGN is an Attractively Priced Growth Stock. Recent patent expiry schedule and IPO of low end competitor SDC has created a reasonable entry point.
It has some risk and growth doesn’t materialize and business becomes commoditized stock may fall further. But assuming they can grow internationally and maintain a premium brand and keep innovating this company can be a multi bagger over next 5-10 years.
It has some risk and growth doesn’t materialize and business becomes commoditized stock may fall further. But assuming they can grow internationally and maintain a premium brand and keep innovating this company can be a multi bagger over next 5-10 years.
Monday, September 16, 2019
Investment Idea - Altria (MO) Attractively Valued
Investment Idea - Altria (MO) Attractively Valued as a greater than recent decline in cigarette volumes (6% vs 3% average over last 12 years), JUUL vaping issues (35% owned by MO) and uncertainty regarding MO-PM merger have pushed MO to a valuation of 10 times Forward P/E and less than 12 times EBIDTA.
In 2017 when consumer staples as a sector was in favor MO was valued at 22 times P/E. Things have changed a lot in the last 24 months as consumer staples as a sector is out of favor and headline risk around vaping health issues and risks of US FDA regulatory changes have investors on edge. Some MO investors are also worried about a dividend cut if merger with PM closes.
It is not an investment without risk but selling MO puts looks attractive with Jan 2021 $50 puts possibly providing $13.50 premium. A case can be made for MO fair value to be $55 which is 32% above today's share price of $41.5.
CDC Report 2017 - Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults in the United States
In 2017 when consumer staples as a sector was in favor MO was valued at 22 times P/E. Things have changed a lot in the last 24 months as consumer staples as a sector is out of favor and headline risk around vaping health issues and risks of US FDA regulatory changes have investors on edge. Some MO investors are also worried about a dividend cut if merger with PM closes.
It is not an investment without risk but selling MO puts looks attractive with Jan 2021 $50 puts possibly providing $13.50 premium. A case can be made for MO fair value to be $55 which is 32% above today's share price of $41.5.
CDC Report 2017 - Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults in the United States
BX: Blackstone closes biggest-ever $20.5B real-estate fund
Very impressed with BX. They keep raising larger funds over time and performance of funds has not suffered as the size of funds have grown. For context previous Real Estate fund raises in 2015 was $15.8B.
BPY vs WeWork - A Comparison
We Work which has revenue of $2B and losses on that and a suspect business model is looking for a valuation of $20B (much lower than originally touted $47B).
On the other hand BPY which owns 98M SFT of Premium Office space 92% leased with 9 year expiry (NYC, London, Boston, Washington DC, Houston, LA, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide) and 125 Premium Class A malls 96% leased with 10 year expiry (All Major US cities including the valuable mall parking lots in downtown cores) and also has $6B worth of multi family, student, self storage and other opportunistic assets. BPY also has many development projects coming online in next 2-5 years which will add to cash flow.
BPY worth $20B today generates $1.5B+ in FFO (could be $2B in FFO including gains from opportunistic investments over near term) in one side and the We Company with a smooth talking and charming CEO on the other side. Which do you think has real value and which is likely a Ponzi Scheme. Let us see how things evolve over next 5 years but my bet is squarely on BPY and real assets and against the We Company.
On the other hand BPY which owns 98M SFT of Premium Office space 92% leased with 9 year expiry (NYC, London, Boston, Washington DC, Houston, LA, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide) and 125 Premium Class A malls 96% leased with 10 year expiry (All Major US cities including the valuable mall parking lots in downtown cores) and also has $6B worth of multi family, student, self storage and other opportunistic assets. BPY also has many development projects coming online in next 2-5 years which will add to cash flow.
BPY worth $20B today generates $1.5B+ in FFO (could be $2B in FFO including gains from opportunistic investments over near term) in one side and the We Company with a smooth talking and charming CEO on the other side. Which do you think has real value and which is likely a Ponzi Scheme. Let us see how things evolve over next 5 years but my bet is squarely on BPY and real assets and against the We Company.
Blame Game Starts As Wheels Come Off India's Auto Sector
Major Recession in India underway it appears.
Will have to wait and see if BAM, BX, GIC, AMZN, WMT, UAE etc. Reduce their investments in India or they take this as an opportunity and double down.
The lure of 1.3 Billion customers can be seductive but if Indian Rupee collapses it will be a bitter pill to slow for those who need returns in USD.
Blame Game Starts As Wheels Come Off India's Auto Sector
Will have to wait and see if BAM, BX, GIC, AMZN, WMT, UAE etc. Reduce their investments in India or they take this as an opportunity and double down.
The lure of 1.3 Billion customers can be seductive but if Indian Rupee collapses it will be a bitter pill to slow for those who need returns in USD.
Blame Game Starts As Wheels Come Off India's Auto Sector
Blackstone to acquire Dream Global REIT for C$6.2B
Blackstone (NYSE:BX) to acquire Dream Global REIT (OTC:DUNDF) in an-all cash transaction for C$16.79/unit, valuing transaction at C$6.2B. (18.5% premium to the closing price of C$14.17 on Sept. 13, 2019).
The transaction value represents 9.1% premium to Dream Global's June 30, 2019 EPRA NAV.
Blackstone to acquire Dream Global REIT for C$6.2B
The transaction value represents 9.1% premium to Dream Global's June 30, 2019 EPRA NAV.
Blackstone to acquire Dream Global REIT for C$6.2B
Monday, September 9, 2019
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing offered C$12.4 billion for Canada's Inter Pipeline
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing offered C$12.4 billion for Canada's Inter Pipeline. Offer would be worth $30 per share when IPL.TO was trading at $23. Buyout by foreign owner would be reviewed by Govt and a sale to North American buyer would be easier to pass regulatory muster.
WeWork Might Cut Valuation to $20B as IPO Pressure Mounts
Last Private Capital Raise valuation was $47B. SoftBank cost basis is $35B valuation. In IPO to public markets institutional investors are only willing to pay $20B valuation. We Company has $4B bond sale for raising debt but it is contingent on IPO being done. So they are in a position now where they are running losses of $1B+ a year and more growth means more losses.
I saw a one hour interview with Newman the CEO and Founder of We Work and was interesting. They are trying to optimize use of office space with use of technology. But overall business model is risky with company signing long term leases and the. Renting space to clients at monthly lease. Going forward they are shifting to place management business model where by somebody else owns the buildings and long term leases and they only manage them. I am unconvinced the business model is robust and built to survive a recession and major commercial real estate downturn.
I saw a one hour interview with Newman the CEO and Founder of We Work and was interesting. They are trying to optimize use of office space with use of technology. But overall business model is risky with company signing long term leases and the. Renting space to clients at monthly lease. Going forward they are shifting to place management business model where by somebody else owns the buildings and long term leases and they only manage them. I am unconvinced the business model is robust and built to survive a recession and major commercial real estate downturn.
BPY by WeWork - A Comparison
We Work which has revenue of $2B and losses on that and a suspect business model is looking for a valuation of $20B (much lower than originally touted $47B).
On the other hand BPY which owns 98M SFT of Premium Office space 92% leased with 9 year expiry (NYC, London, Boston, Washington DC, Houston, LA, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide) and 125 Premium Class A malls 96% leased with 10 year expiry (All Major US cities including the valuable mall parking lots in downtown cores) and also has $6B worth of multi family, student, self storage and other opportunistic assets. BPY also has many development projects coming online in next 2-5 years which will add to cash flow.
BPY worth $20B today generates $1.5B+ in FFO (could be $2B in FFO including gains from opportunistic investments over near term) in one side and the We Company with a smooth talking and charming CEO on the other side. Which do you think has real value and which is likely a Ponzi Scheme. Let us see how things evolve over next 5 years but my bet is squarely on BPY and real assets and against the We Company.
On the other hand BPY which owns 98M SFT of Premium Office space 92% leased with 9 year expiry (NYC, London, Boston, Washington DC, Houston, LA, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide) and 125 Premium Class A malls 96% leased with 10 year expiry (All Major US cities including the valuable mall parking lots in downtown cores) and also has $6B worth of multi family, student, self storage and other opportunistic assets. BPY also has many development projects coming online in next 2-5 years which will add to cash flow.
BPY worth $20B today generates $1.5B+ in FFO (could be $2B in FFO including gains from opportunistic investments over near term) in one side and the We Company with a smooth talking and charming CEO on the other side. Which do you think has real value and which is likely a Ponzi Scheme. Let us see how things evolve over next 5 years but my bet is squarely on BPY and real assets and against the We Company.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
Uber and Lyft close at record lows as investor skepticism grows
Key question for investors on UBER and LYFT
1) Do they have competitive advantages?
2) Can they be profitable?
3) Can they diversify their earnings into new areas like UBER eats and Logistics Package Delivery etc.
4) Will drivers keep working as contractors and depreciating their cars? Most Uber drivers don’t make money once car depreciation is considered according to some analysts.
I remain skeptical of UBER and LYFT even at today’s new lows at their $55B and $14B valuations.
CNBC: Uber and Lyft close at record lows as investor skepticism grows
1) Do they have competitive advantages?
2) Can they be profitable?
3) Can they diversify their earnings into new areas like UBER eats and Logistics Package Delivery etc.
4) Will drivers keep working as contractors and depreciating their cars? Most Uber drivers don’t make money once car depreciation is considered according to some analysts.
I remain skeptical of UBER and LYFT even at today’s new lows at their $55B and $14B valuations.
CNBC: Uber and Lyft close at record lows as investor skepticism grows
POT Stock Bubble has Burst
POT Stock Bubble has Burst. TLRY which ipoed amd trades at $300 which was $30B valuation in Sep 2018 is not valued at $2.5B.
I wonder if any of these POT companies will turn a profit ever. I suspect one or two winners will emerge and survive but all the people chasing the easy money in this bubble have been burnt!
I wonder if any of these POT companies will turn a profit ever. I suspect one or two winners will emerge and survive but all the people chasing the easy money in this bubble have been burnt!
Sunday, September 1, 2019
US 30 Year Yields below 3M at 1.95% and 10 Year Bond Yields below 2 Year at 1.45%
US 30 Year Yields below 3M at 1.95% and 10 Year Bond Yields below 2 Year at 1.45%.
Madness or Apocalypse Now!!!
Madness or Apocalypse Now!!!
AMZN evolving Threat to FRX and UPS in US Logistics
AMZN evolving Threat to FRX and UPS in US Logistics. Pictures paint a thousand words. Looking forward another 5 years and 10 years AMZN can become a formidable threat especially if with innovation they can do things cheaper than FDX and UPS
.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)