Saturday, November 30, 2019

North America Power Generation Market Analysis - Natural Gas and Renewables Slug It Out - Relevant Tickers [BEP, TERP]

Natural Gas has overtaken coal with growth over last 2 decades to become top source. This was mainly due to depressed natural gas prices after shale revolution. All Coal Companies in US are essentially bankrupt now.

Renewables (Wind and Solar excluding Hydro) had started out with help from government subsidies and by 2030 will overtake coal powered generation in US. Canada already has all coal plants closed by 2010 itself. Renewables are growing at a faster rate and will one day ultimately generate highest amount of power in US with nuclear being supported from dying out by government for strategic reasons.

BEP, TERP have had great returns this year with total return of 100% and 65%. Over the last 20 years BEP has generated 17% total return on an annual basis and the company still has decades of growth and stable operations ahead due to increasing need for power (in India, China). Renewables is a $50T market globally over next decades. BEP is 70% Hydro and 30% Wind+Solar today but over next decade it will be 50% each and in long term 80% could be Wind+Solar due to environmental impact and cost of building new hydro dams being higher and continued cost reduction of wind and solar tech.
Analysis on North America Power Generation Markets

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