Top Picks on Coronavirus Selloff

Top Picks on Coronavirus Selloff

1. FB - $200 and below (20*Fwd PE ex Net Cash) (15-20% EPS Growth Rate)

2. V - $190 and below (30*Fwd PE, 13-17% EPS Growth Rate)

3. LMT - $375 and below (15.5*Fwd PE, 7-10% EPS Growth Rate)

4. RTN - $180 and below (14*Fwd PE, 7-10% EPS Growth Rate)

5. BX - $50 and below (15*Fwd PE, 10-15% EPS Growth Rate)

Berkshire Hathaway 4Q2019 Results Overview

Berkshire Hathaway 4Q2019 Results Overview Shows that Per BRK-B share an owner indirectly owns $100 per share in Stock Equity Holdings (AAPL, AXP, BAC, KO etc, excludes KHC which is $10B), $60 per share in Cash Equivalents. Considering operating Earnings per share in child companies and removing adjusted liabilities for debt and insurance float the fair value of BRK-B is in a range of $250-$300 in our opinion. BRK Insurance Float increases to $129B. 

A lot depends on how the $130+B excess cash can be invested and Buffett has done a poor job of this in last 4 years. Outlook in this regard is cloudy and this has slowed down the growth of BRK value. BRK only bought back 1% of shares in 2019 ($5B worth) which does not move the needle. BRK shares were up 11% in 2019 and S&P was up 32% including dividends. 

Berkshire Hathaway 4Q2019 Results

US 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield drops to Record Low 1.92%

US 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield drops to Record Low 1.92% and US 10 Year Bond Yield slumped to 1.47%. 

I can only imagine what will happen to stocks if US Govt bonds follow Euro and Japanese bonds with 10 year bonds yielding 0%. Stocks could go parabolic and alternative investments including infrastructure and real estate values would swell further. 

These are dangerous times in the Investing World. Most likely these manipulations would lead to a grave crisis of some sort one day. 

US 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Drops to Record Low

Alex Umansky Baron Global Fund Manager - Top Positions.

Alex Umansky Baron Global Fund Manager - Top Positions.

This Investor has a great record in investing in Disruptor companies. He has invested in AMZN, FB, GOOGL, BABA from IPO and held them and continued to invest in them. 

Alex Umansky Baron Global Fund Manager - Top Positions

India’s Telecom Sector On The Ropes - $13B Levy Due

India’s Telecom Sector On The Ropes as latest Supreme Court if India Ruling means $13B Levy is due from Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel. 

Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel each now have 30% to 33% market share. After Reliance Jio neatened the market in 2016 and offered free phone calls and cheap data plans ARPU fell for Rs 400 to Rs 80 which is not sustainable in the long run. 

Indian Govt needs to bail out the Telecom Sector for the 3 players to survive. Jio is well positioned after having sold Telecom Towers to Brookfield and deleveraged but Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel will struggle with debt and may be forced to sell their Telecom Towers to raise cash. The future is bright for survivors as 1.2 Billion customers await to be serviced for the next decades in India. 

India’s Telecom Sector On The Ropes - $13B Levy Due

Indian Telcos Pay Part of Dues on Supreme Court Order

SL Green Announces Sale of 315 West 33rd Street in Manhattan and Land Parcel to Brookfield for $446.5M

SL Green Announces Sale of 315 West 33rd Street in Manhattan and Land Parcel to Brookfield for $446.5M. This is very close to Manhattan West development of Brookfield. 

315 West 33rd Street Sale to Brookfield

Brookfield Asset Management 4Q2019 Results

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) reported 4Q2019 Results that indicates the company is firing on all cylinders. The company is enhancing its moat after acquisition of Oaktree Credit Franchise and is well positioned along with BX to serve clients in this Low Interest Rate World. 

BAM Fee Paying AUM grew to $247B. FRE Excluding Performance Fees for 2020 are at a run rate of $1.3B. 

2020 Run Rate Fees Plus Target Carry could be $6B for the year which could imply $4B value creation from Asset Management Franchise. Add in the $1.7B to $2B income for BAM from listed and unlisted investments (Invested Capital Income) the total value creation could reach $6B for the year.

Overall BAM can be valued at $75 for 2020 end with $45 for Asset Management Franchise and $30 to $35 for Invested Capital Net of Liabilities. 

BAM has delivered 18% return over last 25 years and 20% over last 20 years. The company is much stronger today than ever before and has tremendous growth potential in Renewable Energy, Infrastructure, Real Estate and Credit. It is quite possible earnings and value can double over the next 5 years and continue generating compounded returns of 18-20% over next decade if business plans are executed to perfection and Low Interest Rates prevail. 

BAM 4Q2019 Letter

BAM 4Q2019 Results