Monday, July 23, 2018

GOOGL 2Q2018 Results Analysis - Revenue UP 26% Year Over Year

GOOGL Revenues up 26% Year Over Year to $26B (32.5B revenue - TAC 6.5B) and excluding currency gains organic growth in revenue was 23%. GOOGL expected revenue for 2018 will be > 100B. The current valuation is in range of $850B. So it is trading at 8 times revenue. 

Profit will depend on operating margin which has been shrinking steadily over the years. GOOGL also has excess net cash balance of $120B+ which is $150+/share. 

Excluding the fines EPS for the quarter would be $11.75. So on an annualized basis GOOGL is currently earning $50 EPS. So excluding cash ($150 per share) GOOGL can be considered as trading at 22 times Forward earnings [($1200-$150)/50]. 

If GOOGL can continue to grow top line at 24% per year over next 4 years to 2022 then revue will double and earnings will double if margins remain comparable. So an investor today at $1200 needs to hope for this to happen to start making 10% business  return per year 4-5 years from today and hope the business is sustainable in the long run. 

The economics on the shares purchase a year ago at $950 per share are 6.25% earnings yield currently if we exclude the $150/share cash and divide EPS $50 by share price $800. 


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